Mura vs Aluminij
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-13 · 15:00 CET
DLDDD
DWDLLThe score model made a Mura win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:6 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mura 1.35 – 1.09 Aluminij.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mura win | 41.2% | 44.2% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 27.7% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Aluminij win | 28.6% | 28.1% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 49.9% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.1% | 29.2% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 54.7% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 33.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mura 48.3 / Aluminij 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mura vs Aluminij in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.