Koper vs O. Ljubljana
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-12 · 17:30 CET
WWLWD
WWLDWThe score model made a Koper win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koper 1.25 – 1.03 O. Ljubljana.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koper win | 39.4% | 40.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 28.3% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| O. Ljubljana win | 29.0% | 31.2% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 50.0% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 29.8% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 55.1% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.5% | 34.8% | -12.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Koper 47.4 / O. Ljubljana 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Koper vs O. Ljubljana in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.