Bravo vs Celje
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-12 · 20:15 CET
DWWLD
WLLDWThe score model made a Celje win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bravo 1.32 – 1.73 Celje.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bravo win | 28.0% | 23.1% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 23.5% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Celje win | 45.8% | 53.4% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 63.1% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 42.7% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 63.0% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 43.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bravo 48.4 / Celje 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bravo vs Celje in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.