Maribor vs Mura
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-06 · 17:30 CET
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DDLDDThe score model made a Maribor win the most likely outcome at 66%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maribor 2.01 – 0.76 Mura.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor win | 65.7% | 64.5% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 21.1% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Mura win | 12.2% | 14.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 58.5% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 37.6% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 52.0% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 39.9% | -0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maribor 47.1 / Mura 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.