Celje vs Koper
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-06 · 20:15 CET
WLLDW
WWLWDThe score model made a Celje win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celje 1.88 – 1.28 Koper.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celje win | 50.4% | 46.8% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Koper win | 24.9% | 27.5% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 58.4% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.7% | 38.3% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 60.9% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 40.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Celje 46.2 / Koper 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.