Nafta vs Radomlje
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-04 · 20:15 CET
LLWWL
LDLLLThe score model made a Nafta win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nafta 1.65 – 1.38 Radomlje.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta win | 42.8% | 41.5% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.7% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Radomlje win | 31.0% | 32.7% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 58.8% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 38.1% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | 61.8% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 39.5% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nafta 19.7 / Radomlje 46.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.