Kosice vs Zilina
Nike liga, Slovakia · 2026-10-25 · 18:00 CET
WLWDD
WDWDLThe score model makes a Zilina win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 73%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Zilina win — 47.3% vs 29.3% implied (+17.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kosice 1.70 – 2.08 Zilina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kosice win | 32.0% | 47.1% | -15.2% |
| Draw | 20.8% | 23.5% | -2.7% |
| Zilina win | 47.3% | 29.3% | +17.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.8% | 69.2% | +3.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52.2% | 49.3% | +2.9% |
| Both teams to score | 71.4% | 69.0% | +2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 54.9% | 47.5% | +7.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kosice 41.2 / Zilina 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kosice vs Zilina in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.