Komarno vs Trencin
Nike liga, Slovakia · 2026-10-25 · 15:30 CET
DDLDL
LLLLWThe score model makes a Komarno win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.5% vs 59.3% implied (+19.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Komarno 1.26 – 1.12 Trencin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Komarno win | 39.7% | 48.5% | -8.8% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 24.8% | +2.7% |
| Trencin win | 32.9% | 26.7% | +6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 61.0% | -18.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 40.7% | -19.2% |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 62.6% | -14.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Komarno 37.6 / Trencin 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Komarno vs Trencin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.