Skalica vs Trnava
Nike liga, Slovakia · 2026-10-24 · 18:00 CET
DLLDL
DWDWLThe score model makes a Trnava win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.1% vs 67.1% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Skalica 0.91 – 1.67 Trnava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skalica win | 20.6% | 21.6% | -1.0% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.0% | -1.0% |
| Trnava win | 55.5% | 53.5% | +2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 53.7% | -6.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 32.9% | -7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 55.0% | -6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.2% | 36.6% | +4.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Skalica 43.5 / Trnava 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Skalica vs Trnava in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.