Michalovce vs Podbrezova
Nike liga, Slovakia · 2026-10-24 · 15:30 CET
WLWLD
LDWLLThe score model makes a Podbrezova win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.7% vs 57.5% implied (+9.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Michalovce 1.40 – 1.52 Podbrezova.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michalovce win | 35.2% | 33.6% | +1.6% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.8% | -1.5% |
| Podbrezova win | 40.5% | 40.6% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 61.0% | -5.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 40.8% | -7.2% |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 63.9% | -5.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 42.5% | -9.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Michalovce 43.4 / Podbrezova 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Michalovce vs Podbrezova in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.