Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-15 · 20:45 CET
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DWDLWThe score model made a Motherwell win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motherwell 1.68 – 0.81 Aberdeen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 57.8% | 51.2% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.5% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Aberdeen win | 17.6% | 23.3% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 55.2% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 34.3% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 57.0% | -11.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 37.8% | -6.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motherwell 45.2 / Aberdeen 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Motherwell vs Aberdeen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.