Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +27.3% at market prices across 42 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Hibernian produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 26.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →Hearts – St. Mirren2026-10-10 14:00
Under 2.5Model 53.7%Implied 40.2%▲ +13.6%Motherwell – Celtic2026-10-11 11:00
FT U3.5Model 67.6%Implied 58.8%▲ +8.7%Dundee Utd – Hibernian2026-10-10 14:00
Under 2.5Model 50.2%Implied 44.6%▲ +5.5%Aberdeen – St Johnstone2026-10-11 13:00
Under 1.5 HTModel 76.6%Implied 71.4%▲ +5.2%Rangers – Kilmarnock2026-10-10 14:00
FT U3.5Model 52.4%Implied 49.5%▲ +2.9%Falkirk – Dundee FC2026-10-10 14:00
Over 1.5 HTModel 39.1%Implied 39.4%-0.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hearts– St. Mirren | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 40.2% | ▲ +13.6% | 2.49 |
| 2 | Motherwell– Celtic | 2026-10-11 | 11:00 | FT U3.5 | 67.6% | 58.8% | ▲ +8.7% | 1.70 |
| 3 | Dundee Utd– Hibernian | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 44.6% | ▲ +5.5% | 2.24 |
| 4 | Aberdeen– St Johnstone | 2026-10-11 | 13:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 76.6% | 71.4% | ▲ +5.2% | 1.40 |
| 5 | Rangers– Kilmarnock | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | FT U3.5 | 52.4% | 49.5% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.02 |
| 6 | Falkirk– Dundee FC | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 39.1% | 39.4% | -0.3% | 2.54 |
Add Premiership fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Premiership schedule 10,000 times a day. Celtic win the 2026-2027 title in 74% of them, projecting ~73 points; Rangers are next at 24%. At the other end, Kilmarnock finish in the bottom three in 74% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 18 | 73 | 65–80 | 74% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Rangers | 16 | 67 | 59–75 | 24% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Hearts | 13 | 57 | 49–65 | 2% | 92% | <1% |
| 4 | Hibernian | 7 | 46 | 37–54 | <1% | 36% | 6% |
| 5 | Motherwell | 8 | 45 | 37–53 | <1% | 31% | 7% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | St. Mirren | 10 | 38 | 30–46 | — | 5% | 38% |
| 11 | St Johnstone | 8 | 34 | 27–42 | — | 2% | 59% |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 32 | 24–40 | — | <1% | 74% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 156 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/scotland/premiership/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Premiership live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/scotland/premiership">Premiership stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premiership match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 18 | 15.4 | +2.6 | |
| 2 | Rangers | 16 | 13.8 | +2.2 | |
| 3 | Hearts | 13 | 12.1 | +0.9 | |
| 4 | Dundee FC | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 | |
| 5 | St. Mirren | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 10.9 | -3.9 | |
| 11 | Falkirk | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+












