The season in numbers
Blindly backing away wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Kilmarnock produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 26.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Motherwell – Aberdeen2026-09-15 18:45BTTS: No ✓54.5%vs 47.2%▲ +7.4%- Falkirk – Hearts2026-09-15 18:45Under 2.550.7%vs 48.8%▲ +1.9%
- Hibernian – Kilmarnock2026-09-15 18:45Away win15.5%vs 17.2%-1.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Motherwell– Aberdeen | 2026-09-15 | 18:45 | BTTS: No ✓ | 54.5% | 47.2% | ▲ +7.4% | 2.12 | |
| 2 |  Falkirk– Hearts | 2026-09-15 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 48.8% | ▲ +1.9% | 2.05 | |
| 3 |  Hibernian– Kilmarnock | 2026-09-15 | 18:45 | Away win | 15.5% | 17.2% | -1.8% | 5.80 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Premiership schedule 10,000 times a day. Celtic win the 2026-2027 title in 84% of them, projecting ~75 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Kilmarnock finish in the bottom three in 84% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 18 | 75 | 67–83 | 84% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Rangers | 13 | 65 | 56–72 | 12% | 98% | — |
| 3 | Hearts | 12 | 60 | 51–68 | 4% | 92% | <1% |
| 4 | Motherwell | 8 | 51 | 42–59 | <1% | 51% | <1% |
| 5 | Hibernian | 6 | 50 | 41–59 | <1% | 45% | 1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Aberdeen | 4 | 35 | 27–44 | — | 1% | 45% |
| 11 | St Johnstone | 7 | 35 | 27–43 | — | 1% | 46% |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 1 | 28 | 21–36 | — | <1% | 84% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 165 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/scotland/premiership/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Premiership live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/scotland/premiership">Premiership stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Premiership match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 18 | 13.8 | +4.2 | |
| 2 | Rangers | 13 | 12.7 | +0.3 | |
| 3 | Hearts | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 | |
| 4 |  St. Mirren | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 | |
| 5 | Motherwell | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Aberdeen | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | |
| 11 | Falkirk | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 | |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+