Premiershiphub →Premiership 2025-2026 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hearts | 38 | 80 | 66.2 | +13.8Outperforming ++ | 3 | +12.3 | +1.4 | 1:2 vs Celtic (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Kilmarnock (-1.9) |
2 | Motherwell | 38 | 61 | 53.5 | +7.5Outperforming ++ | 5 | +6.2 | +1.3 | 2:3 vs Rangers (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Dundee FC (-1.8) |
3 | Dundee FC | 38 | 42 | 35.7 | +6.3Outperforming ++ | 12 | +9.4 | -3.1 | 2:0 vs Celtic (+2.7) | 0:2 vs Dundee Utd (-1.2) |
4 | Falkirk | 38 | 49 | 46.0 | +3.0Outperforming | 8 | -2.3 | +5.3 | 1:2 vs Motherwell (+2.0) | 1:2 vs St. Mirren (-1.9) |
5 | Hibernian | 38 | 57 | 55.7 | +1.3On expectation | 4 | -1.7 | +3.0 | 1:2 vs Celtic (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Motherwell (-1.6) |
6 | Dundee Utd | 38 | 45 | 44.6 | +0.4On expectation | 9 | +0.9 | -0.6 | 2:1 vs Celtic (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Dundee FC (-1.9) |
7 | Celtic | 38 | 82 | 81.9 | +0.1On expectation | 1 | +2.2 | -2.1 | 3:1 vs Rangers (+1.2) | 2:0 vs Dundee FC (-2.5) |
8 | Rangers | 38 | 72 | 71.9 | +0.1On expectation | 2 | -1.2 | +1.3 | 1:3 vs Celtic (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Hibernian (-2.1) |
9 | Dunfermline | 4 | 5 | 5.0 | -0.0On expectation | 14 | +1.1 | -1.1 | 1:0 vs Arbroath (+1.4) | 2:1 vs Partick Thistle (-0.9) |
10 | Kilmarnock | 38 | 40 | 40.1 | -0.1On expectation | 10 | +1.1 | -1.1 | 1:0 vs Hearts (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Falkirk (-1.4) |
11 | Partick Thistle | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4On expectation | 13 | +0.9 | -1.3 | 2:1 vs Dunfermline (+1.2) | 1:0 vs St. Mirren (-0.9) |
12 | Arbroath | 2 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6On expectation | 15 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 0:0 vs Dunfermline (+-0.5) | 1:0 vs Dunfermline (-1.1) |
13 | Aberdeen | 38 | 40 | 47.7 | -7.7Underperforming −− | 7 | -1.7 | -6.1 | 1:0 vs Hearts (+2.0) | 2:3 vs Dundee FC (-1.7) |
14 | St. Mirren | 40 | 38 | 51.8 | -13.8Underperforming −− | 6 | -5.7 | -8.1 | 1:2 vs Falkirk (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Livingston (-1.9) |
15 | Livingston | 38 | 21 | 36.6 | -15.6Underperforming −− | 11 | -9.3 | -6.3 | 0:2 vs St. Mirren (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Dundee Utd (-1.5) |