Premiershiphub →Premiership 2023-2024 Performance vs Market
Regular phase only. Premiership splits into championship and relegation groups after round 33; those deciding rounds aren't in our dataset yet, so this is the table at the split — not the final standings, and first place here isn't necessarily the season's champion.
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hearts | 33 | 62 | 48.3 | +13.7Outperforming ++ | 3 | +4.4 | +9.3 | 0:2 vs Celtic (+2.6) | 0:1 vs Motherwell (-1.9) |
2 | Kilmarnock | 33 | 51 | 44.1 | +6.9Outperforming ++ | 6 | +8.5 | -1.6 | 1:0 vs Rangers (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Ross County (-1.8) |
3 | Dundee FC | 33 | 41 | 37.4 | +3.6Outperforming | 9 | +2.1 | +1.5 | 0:1 vs Ross County (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Motherwell (-1.5) |
4 | St. Mirren | 33 | 43 | 40.2 | +2.8Outperforming | 7 | +4.9 | -2.0 | 0:3 vs Aberdeen (+2.1) | 1:0 vs Livingston (-1.5) |
5 | Celtic | 33 | 78 | 77.4 | +0.6On expectation | 1 | -1.4 | +2.1 | 0:1 vs Rangers (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Hearts (-2.5) |
6 | St Johnstone | 33 | 31 | 30.4 | +0.6On expectation | 12 | -0.5 | +1.1 | 1:2 vs Hibernian (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Dundee FC (-1.2) |
7 | Motherwell | 33 | 37 | 37.6 | -0.6On expectation | 8 | -4.0 | +3.3 | 1:2 vs Rangers (+2.7) | 0:1 vs Aberdeen (-1.5) |
8 | Rangers | 33 | 75 | 76.5 | -1.5On expectation | 2 | -0.7 | -0.8 | 0:3 vs St. Mirren (+1.0) | 1:2 vs Motherwell (-2.6) |
9 | Ross County | 33 | 30 | 32.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 10 | +3.2 | -5.4 | 3:2 vs Rangers (+2.7) | 0:1 vs Dundee FC (-1.5) |
10 | Hibernian | 33 | 39 | 46.5 | -7.5Underperforming −− | 4 | -5.5 | -2.0 | 0:2 vs Aberdeen (+1.8) | 1:2 vs St Johnstone (-2.1) |
11 | Aberdeen | 33 | 35 | 44.9 | -9.8Underperforming −− | 5 | -6.0 | -3.9 | 1:3 vs Rangers (+2.5) | 0:2 vs St Johnstone (-2.0) |
12 | Livingston | 33 | 18 | 30.9 | -12.9Underperforming −− | 11 | -5.4 | -7.5 | 2:3 vs Hibernian (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Dundee FC (-1.4) |