Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-15 · 20:45 CET
LLDLL
DWDLWThe score model made a Hibernian win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hibernian 2.23 – 1.00 Kilmarnock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 64.9% | 66.6% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.6% | 19.7% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Kilmarnock win | 15.5% | 13.7% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | 63.4% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.4% | 42.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 56.2% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 42.6% | +1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hibernian 45.2 / Kilmarnock 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hibernian vs Kilmarnock in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.