St Johnstone vs Hibernian
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-06 · 16:00 CET
DWLDW
LLLDLThe score model made a Hibernian win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St Johnstone 1.07 – 1.51 Hibernian.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone win | 26.4% | 30.7% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 28.8% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Hibernian win | 47.3% | 40.5% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 50.3% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 30.0% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 55.7% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 34.7% | -4.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St Johnstone 20.9 / Hibernian 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.