St Johnstone vs Hibernian
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-06 · 16:00 CET
WLWLL
WLLWWThe score model makes a Hibernian win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Hibernian win — 48.4% vs 38.7% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St Johnstone 1.04 – 1.54 Hibernian.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone win | 25.4% | 33.8% | -8.4% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.5% | -1.3% |
| Hibernian win | 48.4% | 38.7% | +9.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 50.3% | -2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 29.7% | -3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 55.2% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 34.2% | -2.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St Johnstone 20.2 / Hibernian 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.