Hearts vs Dundee FC
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-06 · 16:00 CET
WLLWW
LWLWWThe score model makes a Hearts win the most likely outcome at 66%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hearts 2.10 – 0.85 Dundee FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 65.9% | — | — |
| Draw | 20.3% | — | — |
| Dundee FC win | 13.8% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hearts 44.6 / Dundee FC 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.