St. Mirren vs Celtic
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 21:00 CET
WLLLL
WWWLWThe score model made a Celtic win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Mirren 0.84 – 1.93 Celtic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mirren win | 15.5% | 14.0% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 19.3% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Celtic win | 62.6% | 66.7% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 65.5% | -13.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 45.0% | -14.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 58.1% | -9.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 44.7% | -11.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Mirren 46.8 / Celtic 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.