St. Mirren vs Celtic
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 21:00 CET
DWWWD
WWWWWThe score model makes a Celtic win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.5% vs 58.7% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Mirren 0.86 – 1.96 Celtic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Mirren win | 15.4% | 12.3% | +3.0% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 20.3% | +1.3% |
| Celtic win | 63.0% | 67.4% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 60.1% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% | 39.6% | -8.4% |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | 52.7% | -3.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 41.3% | -8.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Mirren 46.3 / Celtic 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.