Rangers vs Motherwell
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
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WLLLLThe score model made a Rangers win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rangers 1.99 – 1.03 Motherwell.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 59.2% | 64.7% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 20.5% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Motherwell win | 18.9% | 14.8% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 63.3% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 42.5% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 57.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 42.5% | -5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rangers 45.2 / Motherwell 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.