Rangers vs Motherwell
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LWDLW
LWWDDThe score model makes a Rangers win the most likely outcome at 60%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rangers 2.01 – 1.02 Motherwell.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 60.2% | 61.1% | -0.9% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 22.6% | -1.0% |
| Motherwell win | 18.2% | 16.3% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 57.6% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 36.9% | -0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 54.5% | +1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 39.2% | -1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rangers 44.7 / Motherwell 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.