Dundee Utd vs Falkirk
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DDLLW
LLLDLThe score model makes a Dundee Utd win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.4% vs 61.5% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundee Utd 1.53 – 1.17 Falkirk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd win | 45.2% | 43.4% | +1.7% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.9% | +0.2% |
| Falkirk win | 28.7% | 30.6% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 60.1% | -9.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 38.5% | -9.8% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 62.9% | -8.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 40.3% | -5.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundee Utd 40.7 / Falkirk 27.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.