Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LLWLL
WWLLLThe score model makes an Aberdeen win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kilmarnock win — 26.9% vs 21.7% implied (+5.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.65 – 1.17 Kilmarnock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 48.1% | 53.6% | -5.5% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.7% | +0.3% |
| Kilmarnock win | 26.9% | 21.7% | +5.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 56.7% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 35.9% | -4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 57.1% | -1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 38.4% | -5.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aberdeen 44.8 / Kilmarnock 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.