Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LDWDL
LDWDLThe score model made an Aberdeen win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.62 – 1.16 Kilmarnock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen win | 47.9% | 55.8% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 24.0% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Kilmarnock win | 26.9% | 20.2% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 57.1% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 36.1% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 56.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 39.1% | -5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aberdeen 45.3 / Kilmarnock 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.