Hibernian vs Hearts
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-03 · 20:45 CET
WLLWW
WLLWWThe score model makes a Hibernian win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.2% vs 69.2% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hibernian 1.33 – 1.20 Hearts.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 39.3% | 37.9% | +1.4% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.1% | +0.4% |
| Hearts win | 33.3% | 35.0% | -1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 52.0% | -5.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 30.8% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 56.6% | -4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 35.0% | -2.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hibernian 44.5 / Hearts 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.