Motherwell vs Dundee Utd
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-02 · 20:45 CET
WLLLL
WLDWWThe score model made a Motherwell win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motherwell 1.70 – 0.95 Dundee Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 54.7% | 45.2% | +9.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.4% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Dundee Utd win | 20.7% | 28.3% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 56.0% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% | 34.8% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 58.9% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 38.2% | -6.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motherwell 44.4 / Dundee Utd 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.