Motherwell vs Dundee Utd
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-02 · 20:45 CET
LWWDD
DDLLWThe score model makes a Motherwell win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Motherwell win — 54.7% vs 47.6% implied (+7.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motherwell 1.70 – 0.95 Dundee Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell win | 54.7% | 47.6% | +7.1% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.1% | -1.5% |
| Dundee Utd win | 20.7% | 26.3% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 55.0% | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% | 34.1% | -6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 57.6% | -7.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 37.4% | -5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motherwell 44.6 / Dundee Utd 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.