Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-02 · 20:45 CET
LDWDL
WLLLLThe score model made a Kilmarnock win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.50 – 1.19 St. Mirren.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 44.1% | 35.0% | +9.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 26.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| St. Mirren win | 29.8% | 38.5% | -8.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 58.0% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 37.8% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 62.0% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 39.9% | -9.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kilmarnock 44.3 / St. Mirren 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.