Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-02 · 20:45 CET
WWLLL
DWWWDThe score model makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kilmarnock win — 44.1% vs 36.1% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.50 – 1.19 St. Mirren.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 44.1% | 36.1% | +8.0% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 27.7% | -1.6% |
| St. Mirren win | 29.8% | 36.2% | -6.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 52.0% | -1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 31.2% | -2.7% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 56.7% | -2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 35.4% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kilmarnock 44.4 / St. Mirren 46.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.