Dundee FC vs St Johnstone
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-02 · 20:45 CET
LWLWW
WLWLLThe score model makes a Dundee FC win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Dundee FC win — 50.7% vs 37.7% implied (+13.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundee FC 1.67 – 1.08 St Johnstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee FC win | 50.7% | 37.7% | +13.0% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.4% | -2.3% |
| St Johnstone win | 24.2% | 34.9% | -10.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 50.0% | +1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 29.3% | +0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 55.1% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 34.1% | +0.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundee FC 42.4 / St Johnstone 20.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.