Dundee FC vs St Johnstone
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-09-02 · 20:45 CET
LDLWW
DWLDWThe score model made a Dundee FC win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundee FC 1.65 – 1.08 St Johnstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee FC win | 50.3% | 34.9% | +15.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.4% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| St Johnstone win | 24.6% | 37.7% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 51.8% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 30.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 56.7% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 35.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundee FC 43.2 / St Johnstone 20.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.