Stranraer vs Dumbarton
League Two, Scotland · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WWDWW
LWWLDThe score model made a Stranraer win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stranraer 1.45 – 0.94 Dumbarton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stranraer win | 48.2% | 58.8% | -10.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 22.7% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Dumbarton win | 23.5% | 18.5% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 59.3% | -16.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 38.4% | -16.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 56.8% | -9.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 40.5% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stranraer 47.1 / Dumbarton 36 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stranraer vs Dumbarton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.