The season in numbers
Blindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Stirling produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Stranraer – Dumbarton2026-09-12 14:00Under 2.5 ✓57.2%vs 43.9%▲ +13.3%- Edinburgh City – Stirling2026-09-12 14:00Over 2.5 ✓63.8%vs 56.5%▲ +7.3%
- Spartans – Forfar Athletic2026-09-12 14:00Under 1.5 HT ✓74.0%vs 67.1%▲ +6.9%
- Annan – Elgin City2026-09-12 14:00Under 1.5 HT66.2%vs 64.9%▲ +1.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stranraer– Dumbarton | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 57.2% | 43.9% | ▲ +13.3% | 2.28 | |
| 2 |  Edinburgh City– Stirling | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Over 2.5 ✓ | 63.8% | 56.5% | ▲ +7.3% | 1.77 | |
| 3 |  Spartans– Forfar Athletic | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 74.0% | 67.1% | ▲ +6.9% | 1.49 | |
| 4 |  Annan– Elgin City | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 66.2% | 64.9% | ▲ +1.3% | 1.54 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining League Two schedule 10,000 times a day. Clyde win the 2026-2027 title in 51% of them, projecting ~64 points; Spartans are next at 27%. At the other end, Stirling finish in the bottom three in 71% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Clyde's title chance up 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Clyde | 13 | 64 | 54–72 | ▲51% | 95% | <1% |
| 2 | Spartans | 9 | 60 | 51–69 | 27% | 88% | 1% |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 56 | 47–65 | 14% | 73% | 4% |
| 4 | Stranraer | 10 | 52 | 43–61 | 5% | 53% | 11% |
| 5 | Forfar Athletic | 8 | 49 | 40–58 | 2% | 33% | 21% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Kelty Hearts | 9 | 45 | 36–53 | <1% | 14% | 44% |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 6 | 41 | 33–50 | <1% | 7% | 64% |
| 10 | Stirling | 4 | 40 | 31–49 | <1% | 5% | 71% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 150 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every League Two match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clyde | 13 | 9.9 | +3.1 | |
| 2 | Elgin City | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 | |
| 3 | Stranraer | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 | |
| 4 | Spartans | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 | |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Annan | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | |
| 10 | Stirling | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+