League Two title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Scotland · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 6 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Clyde (46%), Stranraer (19%), Spartans (17%). 65 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde | 9 | 17 | 6253–70 | 46% | 48 from 27 (1.78/game) |
| Stranraer | 9 | 17 | 5748–65 | 19% | 48 from 27 (1.78/game) |
| Spartans | 9 | 12 | 5648–65 | 17% | 53 from 27 (1.96/game) |
| Elgin City | 9 | 14 | 5445–62 | 10% | 51 from 27 (1.89/game) |
| Edinburgh City | 9 | 15 | 5142–59 | 4% | 50 from 27 (1.85/game) |
| Forfar Athletic | 9 | 11 | 4739–55 | 1% | 54 from 27 (2.00/game) |
Below 1%: Dumbarton, Annan, Kelty Hearts, Stirling.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 135 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).