League Two title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Scotland · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Clyde (44%), Stranraer (38%), Spartans (10%). 68 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde | 11 | 23 | 6456–72 | 44% | 45 from 25 (1.80/game) |
| Stranraer | 11 | 23 | 6355–71 | 38% | 45 from 25 (1.80/game) |
| Spartans | 11 | 15 | 5748–65 | 10% | 53 from 25 (2.12/game) |
| Elgin City | 11 | 18 | 5547–63 | 7% | 50 from 25 (2.00/game) |
Below 1%: Edinburgh City, Kelty Hearts, Forfar Athletic, Dumbarton, Stirling, Annan.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 125 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).