Edinburgh City vs Stirling
League Two, Scotland · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WWDLD
LDWWDThe score model made an Edinburgh City win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 7:3 (HT 5:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Edinburgh City 1.84 – 1.45 Stirling.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh City win | 46.1% | 54.5% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.9% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Stirling win | 30.0% | 20.5% | +9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 55.7% | +8.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.7% | 35.1% | +6.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 55.5% | +9.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.8% | 38.4% | +8.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Edinburgh City 40.6 / Stirling 41.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Edinburgh City vs Stirling in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.