Forfar Athletic vs Stranraer
League Two, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
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WWWDWThe score model made a Forfar Athletic win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forfar Athletic 1.15 – 0.87 Stranraer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forfar Athletic win | 41.4% | 33.3% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.0% | 27.9% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Stranraer win | 26.6% | 38.8% | -12.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.9% | 50.4% | -17.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.7% | 29.3% | -14.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.6% | 55.1% | -14.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 34.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forfar Athletic 48.3 / Stranraer 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.