Dumbarton vs Elgin City
League Two, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WLWWL
LLLWWThe score model made an Elgin City win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dumbarton 1.32 – 1.49 Elgin City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton win | 32.9% | 24.3% | +8.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 25.4% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Elgin City win | 40.4% | 50.3% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 55.3% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 34.5% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 57.0% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.2% | 38.0% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dumbarton 35.4 / Elgin City 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.