Montrose vs Cove Rangers
League One, Scotland · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WWLLD
LLLDLThe score model made a Cove Rangers win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Montrose 1.41 – 1.50 Cove Rangers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montrose win | 34.2% | 54.3% | -20.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 23.9% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Cove Rangers win | 38.3% | 21.7% | +16.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 56.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 35.8% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 56.5% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 39.1% | -2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Montrose 46.9 / Cove Rangers 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Montrose vs Cove Rangers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.