The season in numbers
Blindly backing ht under 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Airdrieonians produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 36.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Queen of South – East Fife2026-09-12 14:00Home win ✓52.3%vs 37.5%▲ +14.8%- Montrose – Cove Rangers2026-09-12 14:00Away win ✓38.3%vs 23.6%▲ +14.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen of South– East Fife | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win ✓ | 52.3% | 37.5% | ▲ +14.8% | 2.67 | |
| 2 |  Montrose– Cove Rangers | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 38.3% | 23.6% | ▲ +14.7% | 4.24 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 10 AugWe simulate the remaining League One schedule 10,000 times a day. East Kilbride win the 2026-2027 title in 77% of them, projecting ~66 points; Hamilton are next at 18%. At the other end, Airdrieonians finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Kilbride | 4 | 66 | 57–74 | 77% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Hamilton | 6 | 57 | 48–66 | 18% | 96% | <1% |
| 3 | Ross County | 6 | 51 | 42–60 | 4% | 81% | <1% |
| 4 |  Alloa | 1 | 45 | 36–53 | <1% | 50% | 5% |
| 5 | Cove Rangers | 1 | 42 | 33–51 | <1% | 33% | 10% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Montrose | 0 | 32 | 23–40 | <1% | 3% | 60% |
| 9 | East Fife | 4 | 31 | 23–39 | — | 2% | 62% |
| 10 |  Airdrieonians | 2 | 2 | 2–2 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 136 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/scotland/league-one/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="League One live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/scotland/league-one">League One stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every League One match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton | 16 | 10.4 | +5.6 | |
| 2 | Ross County | 13 | 9.9 | +3.1 | |
| 3 | Alloa | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | |
| 4 | Montrose | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | |
| 5 | East Fife | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | |
| 9 | Queen of South | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | |
| 10 | Airdrieonians | 3 | 8.2 | -5.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+