The season in numbers
HT Under 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +5.6% at market prices across 59 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Cove Rangers produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Peterhead – Alloa2026-10-31 15:00Away winModel 47.8%Implied 36.8%▲ +11.0%- East Fife – Queen of South2026-10-31 15:00Away winModel 43.6%Implied 34.8%▲ +8.8%
- East Kilbride – Ross County2026-10-31 15:00Away winModel 72.9%Implied 65.8%▲ +7.1%
- Hamilton – Montrose2026-10-31 15:00Away winModel 14.7%Implied 14.6%▲ +0.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Peterhead– Alloa | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Away win | 47.8% | 36.8% | ▲ +11.0% | 2.72 |
| 2 |  East Fife– Queen of South | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Away win | 43.6% | 34.8% | ▲ +8.8% | 2.87 |
| 3 |  East Kilbride– Ross County | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Away win | 72.9% | 65.8% | ▲ +7.1% | 1.52 |
| 4 |  Hamilton– Montrose | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Away win | 14.7% | 14.6% | ▲ +0.1% | 6.87 |
Add League One fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining League One schedule 10,000 times a day. Ross County win the 2026-2027 title in >99% of them, projecting ~96 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, East Fife finish in the bottom three in 90% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 31 | 96 | 91–102 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Hamilton | 31 | 73 | 65–81 | <1% | >99% | — |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 21 | 59 | 51–67 | — | 97% | <1% |
| 4 | Montrose | 19 | 46 | 39–54 | — | 36% | 7% |
| 5 |  Airdrieonians | 13 | 44 | 37–52 | — | 26% | 11% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 |  Cove Rangers | 6 | 34 | 26–41 | — | 1% | 72% |
| 9 | Peterhead | 10 | 31 | 24–38 | — | <1% | 88% |
| 10 | East Fife | 9 | 30 | 23–37 | — | <1% | 90% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 121 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every League One match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 31 | 23.6 | +7.4 | |
| 2 | Hamilton | 31 | 20.8 | +10.3 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 21 | 19.8 | +1.3 | |
| 4 | Montrose | 19 | 14.1 | +4.9 | |
| 5 | Airdrieonians | 13 | 15.7 | -2.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Peterhead | 10 | 14.9 | -4.9 | |
| 9 | East Fife | 9 | 13.2 | -4.2 | |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 6 | 13.2 | -7.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+