Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
HT Under 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +11.9% at market prices across 44 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Cove Rangers produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Peterhead – Queen of South2026-10-10 14:00Away winModel 41.7%Implied 27.9%▲ +13.7%- Cove Rangers – East Fife2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 51.8%Implied 44.4%▲ +7.3%
- Alloa – Hamilton2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 29.5%Implied 22.9%▲ +6.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Peterhead– Queen of South | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Away win | 41.7% | 27.9% | ▲ +13.7% | 3.58 |
| 2 |  Cove Rangers– East Fife | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 51.8% | 44.4% | ▲ +7.3% | 2.25 |
| 3 |  Alloa– Hamilton | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 29.5% | 22.9% | ▲ +6.6% | 4.36 |
Add League One fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining League One schedule 10,000 times a day. Ross County win the 2026-2027 title in 99% of them, projecting ~90 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Peterhead finish in the bottom three in 86% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 22 | 90 | 83–96 | 99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Hamilton | 22 | 70 | 61–78 | 1% | >99% | — |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 16 | 61 | 52–69 | <1% | 97% | <1% |
| 4 | Alloa | 9 | 47 | 39–55 | — | 39% | 9% |
| 5 |  Montrose | 15 | 45 | 37–53 | — | 24% | 16% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 5 | 39 | 31–47 | — | 8% | 45% |
| 9 | East Fife | 8 | 32 | 25–40 | — | <1% | 85% |
| 10 | Peterhead | 7 | 32 | 24–39 | — | <1% | 86% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 136 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every League One match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 22 | 16.7 | +5.3 | |
| 2 | Hamilton | 22 | 14.9 | +7.1 | |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 16 | 14.4 | +1.6 | |
| 4 | Montrose | 15 | 11.1 | +3.9 | |
| 5 |  Airdrieonians | 12 | 12.9 | -0.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Peterhead | 7 | 10.6 | -3.6 | |
| 9 | Queen of South | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 5 | 9.6 | -4.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+