Cove Rangers vs Alloa
League One, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
DLLLD
DLLLLThe score model made an Alloa win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cove Rangers 1.22 – 1.25 Alloa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers win | 34.2% | 26.5% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.5% | 27.0% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Alloa win | 35.3% | 46.5% | -11.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 51.6% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 30.6% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 55.2% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 35.1% | -8.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cove Rangers 44 / Alloa 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.