Arbroath vs Morton
Championship, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
DLLWL
LLLLLThe score model makes an Arbroath win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 76.8% vs 69.4% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arbroath 1.36 – 1.06 Morton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath win | 41.7% | 52.9% | -11.2% |
| Draw | 31.1% | 26.4% | +4.8% |
| Morton win | 27.2% | 20.7% | +6.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 45.2% | -1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 25.7% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 47.5% | +2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 30.6% | -7.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arbroath 38.4 / Morton 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.