Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctThe season in numbers
Under 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +30.9% at market prices across 60 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Morton produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Stenhousemuir – Dunfermline2026-10-27 19:45Home winModel 46.3%Implied 27.6%▲ +18.7%- Stenhousemuir – Livingston2026-10-30 19:30Under 2.5Model 72.1%Implied 56.5%▲ +15.6%
- Partick Thistle – Morton2026-10-31 15:00Under 2.5Model 52.7%Implied 41.3%▲ +11.4%
- Dunfermline – Inverness2026-10-31 15:00Under 2.5Model 63.8%Implied 56.2%▲ +7.6%
- Ayr – Queen's Park2026-10-31 15:00Over 1.5 HTModel 40.9%Implied 34.7%▲ +6.2%
- Arbroath – Raith2026-10-31 15:00Home winModel 26.4%Implied 24.2%▲ +2.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stenhousemuir– Dunfermline | 2026-10-27 | 19:45 | Home win | 46.3% | 27.6% | ▲ +18.7% | 3.62 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir– Livingston | 2026-10-30 | 19:30 | Under 2.5 | 72.1% | 56.5% | ▲ +15.6% | 1.77 |
| 3 |  Partick Thistle– Morton | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 41.3% | ▲ +11.4% | 2.42 |
| 4 | Dunfermline– Inverness | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 63.8% | 56.2% | ▲ +7.6% | 1.78 |
| 5 |  Ayr– Queen's Park | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 40.9% | 34.7% | ▲ +6.2% | 2.88 |
| 6 |  Arbroath– Raith | 2026-10-31 | 15:00 | Home win | 26.4% | 24.2% | ▲ +2.2% | 4.13 |
Add Championship fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctWe simulate the remaining Championship schedule 10,000 times a day. Partick Thistle win the 2026-2027 title in 60% of them, projecting ~68 points; Stenhousemuir are next at 29%. At the other end, Morton finish in the bottom three in 94% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Partick Thistle's title chance up 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick Thistle | 28 | 68 | 60–76 | ▲60% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 23 | 64 | 56–72 | 29% | 93% | <1% |
| 3 | Livingston | 17 | 56 | 49–64 | 4% | 64% | <1% |
| 4 | Raith | 21 | 56 | 48–63 | 4% | 57% | <1% |
| 5 | Inverness | 19 | 55 | 48–63 | 3% | 55% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 35 | 28–43 | — | <1% | 84% |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 10 | 33 | 26–40 | — | <1% | 91% |
| 10 | Morton | 7 | 31 | 24–39 | — | <1% | 94% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 122 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Championship match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick Thistle | 28 | 23.8 | +4.2 | |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 23 | 11.3 | +11.7 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Raith | 21 | 19.3 | +1.7 | |
| 4 | Inverness | 19 | 19.3 | -0.3 | |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 18 | 17.3 | +0.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 13.4 | -2.4 | |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 10 | 12.9 | -2.9 | |
| 10 | Morton | 7 | 11.4 | -4.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+