The season in numbers
Blindly backing under 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Morton produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 35.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Dunfermline – Queen's Park2026-09-12 14:00Under 2.5 ✓59.5%vs 50.8%▲ +8.7%- Ayr – Inverness2026-09-12 14:00Home win41.5%vs 37.3%▲ +4.2%
- Raith – Arbroath2026-09-12 14:00Under 1.5 HT ✓77.9%vs 74.1%▲ +3.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dunfermline– Queen's Park | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 59.5% | 50.8% | ▲ +8.7% | 1.97 | |
| 2 |  Ayr– Inverness | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Home win | 41.5% | 37.3% | ▲ +4.2% | 2.68 | |
| 3 |  Raith– Arbroath | 2026-09-12 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 77.9% | 74.1% | ▲ +3.8% | 1.35 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Championship schedule 10,000 times a day. Stenhousemuir win the 2026-2027 title in 84% of them, projecting ~73 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Morton finish in the bottom three in 84% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stenhousemuir | 13 | 73 | 65–82 | 84% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Partick Thistle | 14 | 62 | 53–70 | 11% | 94% | <1% |
| 3 | Livingston | 6 | 57 | 48–66 | 4% | 84% | <1% |
| 4 | Raith | 10 | 54 | 45–63 | 2% | 71% | 3% |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 6 | 46 | 37–55 | <1% | 22% | 20% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Queen's Park | 7 | 40 | 32–49 | — | 5% | 54% |
| 9 | Inverness | 3 | 39 | 31–48 | <1% | 4% | 57% |
| 10 |  Morton | 1 | 34 | 25–42 | — | <1% | 84% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 155 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/scotland/championship/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Championship live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/scotland/championship">Championship stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Championship match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick Thistle | 14 | 11.2 | +2.8 | |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 13 | 5.1 | +7.9 | |
| 3 | Raith | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | |
| 4 | Arbroath | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | |
| 5 | Queen's Park | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Ayr | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | |
| 9 | Inverness | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | |
| 10 | Morton | 1 | 6.3 | -5.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+