Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Under 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +29.4% at market prices across 44 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Morton produced performances worth 8 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Livingston – Partick Thistle2026-10-10 14:00Under 2.5Model 62.7%Implied 51.0%▲ +11.7%- Queen's Park – Inverness2026-10-13 18:45Home winModel 28.8%Implied 18.6%▲ +10.2%
- Ayr – Dunfermline2026-10-10 14:00Under 2.5Model 62.0%Implied 56.8%▲ +5.2%
- Arbroath – Morton2026-10-10 14:00Away winModel 27.1%Implied 23.3%▲ +3.8%
- Raith – Queen's Park2026-10-10 14:00DrawModel 27.1%Implied 25.9%▲ +1.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Livingston– Partick Thistle | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 62.7% | 51.0% | ▲ +11.7% | 1.96 |
| 2 |  Queen's Park– Inverness | 2026-10-13 | 18:45 | Home win | 28.8% | 18.6% | ▲ +10.2% | 5.38 |
| 3 |  Ayr– Dunfermline | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 62.0% | 56.8% | ▲ +5.2% | 1.76 |
| 4 |  Arbroath– Morton | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Away win | 27.1% | 23.3% | ▲ +3.8% | 4.29 |
| 5 |  Raith–Queen's Park | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Draw | 27.1% | 25.9% | ▲ +1.2% | 3.86 |
Add Championship fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Championship schedule 10,000 times a day. Stenhousemuir win the 2026-2027 title in 92% of them, projecting ~77 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Morton finish in the bottom three in 98% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stenhousemuir | 22 | 77 | 68–84 | 92% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Partick Thistle | 18 | 61 | 53–70 | 5% | 90% | <1% |
| 3 | Livingston | 13 | 58 | 50–66 | 2% | 82% | <1% |
| 4 | Raith | 17 | 56 | 48–64 | 1% | 70% | 1% |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 12 | 50 | 41–58 | <1% | 27% | 8% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 39 | 31–46 | — | 1% | 68% |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 7 | 35 | 27–43 | — | <1% | 85% |
| 10 | Morton | 1 | 27 | 19–34 | — | <1% | 98% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 138 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Championship match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 22 | 8.6 | +13.4 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Partick Thistle | 18 | 17.2 | +0.8 | |
| 3 | Raith | 17 | 14.2 | +2.8 | |
| 4 | Livingston | 13 | 16.1 | -3.1 | |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Inverness | 10 | 12.4 | -2.4 | |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 | |
| 10 | Morton | 1 | 9.0 | -8.0 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+