Championship title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Scotland · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Stenhousemuir (64%), Partick Thistle (28%), Raith (5%). 71 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 10 | 23 | 7062–77 | 64% | 48 from 26 (1.85/game) |
| Partick Thistle | 12 | 25 | 6557–73 | 28% | 46 from 25 (1.84/game) |
| Raith | 11 | 21 | 5850–66 | 5% | 50 from 25 (2.00/game) |
| Livingston | 11 | 14 | 5547–63 | 2% | 57 from 25 (2.28/game) |
Below 1%: Inverness, Dunfermline, Ayr, Arbroath, Queen's Park, Morton.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 126 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).