Dunfermline vs Queen's Park
Championship, Scotland · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
DWWDD
LLLWLThe score model made a Dunfermline win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunfermline 1.42 – 0.87 Queen's Park.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline win | 47.6% | 63.8% | -16.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.2% | 22.0% | +9.2% | ✗ |
| Queen's Park win | 21.2% | 14.2% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 52.9% | -12.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 31.9% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | 49.1% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 35.4% | -7.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dunfermline 46.8 / Queen's Park 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dunfermline vs Queen's Park in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.