Ayr vs Inverness
Championship, Scotland · 2026-09-12 · 16:00 CET
WLWDL
DWWLWThe score model made an Ayr win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ayr 1.26 – 0.96 Inverness.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr win | 41.2% | 34.6% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.8% | 28.6% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Inverness win | 26.0% | 36.8% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 46.4% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.5% | 26.7% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 52.6% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 32.2% | -1.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ayr 46.9 / Inverness 12.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ayr vs Inverness in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.