Morton vs Livingston
Championship, Scotland · 2026-09-11 · 20:30 CET
LLLLW
WDWLLThe score model made a Livingston win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Morton 0.84 – 1.34 Livingston.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton win | 21.3% | 16.6% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.3% | 22.2% | +10.0% | ✗ |
| Livingston win | 46.5% | 61.2% | -14.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.2% | 53.5% | -16.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.7% | 32.2% | -14.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 51.2% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 37.3% | -6.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Morton 47 / Livingston 15.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.