Queen's Park vs Morton
Championship, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WLLLL
LLLLWThe score model made a Queen's Park win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Queen's Park 1.32 – 1.10 Morton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen's Park win | 39.4% | 39.6% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.8% | 29.2% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Morton win | 28.9% | 31.2% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.7% | 46.1% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 26.1% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 51.8% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 31.5% | -4.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Queen's Park 45.6 / Morton 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.