Inverness vs Raith
Championship, Scotland · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
LWDWW
WDLWWThe score model made an Inverness win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inverness 1.17 – 1.07 Raith.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverness win | 35.8% | 40.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.3% | 29.8% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Raith win | 30.9% | 29.8% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.1% | 43.9% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.0% | 24.3% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 50.4% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 30.2% | -6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Inverness 11.9 / Raith 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.