Al Taawon vs Al Qadisiya
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-20 · 17:10 CET
DLLLD
WWDLWThe score model made an Al Qadisiya win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Taawon 0.98 – 1.34 Al Qadisiya.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Taawon win | 25.9% | 15.6% | +10.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.7% | 19.7% | +11.1% | ✗ |
| Al Qadisiya win | 43.4% | 64.7% | -21.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 64.1% | -23.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 43.2% | -22.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | 58.3% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 42.0% | -15.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Taawon 46.3 / Al Qadisiya 14.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Taawon vs Al Qadisiya in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.