Neom SC vs Al Fateh
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-13 · 18:20 CET
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LLLWLThe score model made a Neom SC win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 4:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Neom SC 1.45 – 1.00 Al Fateh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neom SC win | 46.4% | 56.2% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 23.7% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Al Fateh win | 24.8% | 20.1% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 56.7% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.2% | 35.5% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 56.5% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 38.5% | -6.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Neom SC 28.3 / Al Fateh 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Neom SC vs Al Fateh in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.