Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-13 · 20:00 CET
WLDWD
DWLLLThe score model made an Al Kholood win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.34 – 1.49 Al Kholood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh win | 33.0% | 23.7% | +9.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 27.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Al Kholood win | 39.8% | 48.7% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 45.6% | +8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 25.1% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 49.6% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 30.8% | +10.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Riyadh 44.1 / Al Kholood 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.