Al Khaleej vs Al Nassr
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-12 · 20:00 CET
LDDDW
WLWDWThe score model made an Al Nassr win the most likely outcome at 75%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Khaleej 0.92 – 2.71 Al Nassr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Khaleej win | 9.6% | 10.3% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 15.9% | 16.3% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Al Nassr win | 74.5% | 73.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.1% | 66.0% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.0% | 45.1% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 52.2% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.7% | 43.9% | -0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Khaleej 47 / Al Nassr 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Khaleej vs Al Nassr in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.