Al Qadisiya vs Al Ettifaq
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-11 · 17:25 CET
WWDLW
WDDDDThe score model made an Al Qadisiya win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Qadisiya 1.60 – 0.92 Al Ettifaq.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Qadisiya win | 52.3% | 74.5% | -22.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 14.8% | +12.3% | ✓ |
| Al Ettifaq win | 20.6% | 10.7% | +9.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 73.0% | -27.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 53.2% | -28.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 58.6% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 51.4% | -22.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Qadisiya 15.2 / Al Ettifaq 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.