Al Ahli SC vs Al Hazem
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
LWLWW
DWLDLThe score model made an Al Ahli SC win the most likely outcome at 74%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 3:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ahli SC 2.39 – 0.72 Al Hazem.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahli SC win | 73.8% | 75.7% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.4% | 15.3% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Al Hazem win | 8.8% | 9.1% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 61.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.9% | 41.1% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 46.9% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 42.5% | -5.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ahli SC 44.3 / Al Hazem 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.