Al Nassr vs Abha
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-09 · 20:00 CET
WLWDW
DLLLDThe score model made an Al Nassr win the most likely outcome at 91%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 85%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Nassr 4.02 – 0.70 Abha.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Nassr win | 91.3% | 83.1% | +8.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 6.3% | 10.8% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Abha win | 2.4% | 6.1% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84.8% | 71.2% | +13.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 69.1% | 51.3% | +17.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 45.6% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 55.4% | 50.0% | +5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Nassr 45.8 / Abha 12.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.