Al Hazem vs Al Taawon
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-08 · 17:55 CET
DDWLD
LDLLLThe score model made an Al Taawon win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Hazem 1.00 – 1.50 Al Taawon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hazem win | 24.1% | 25.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 27.5% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Al Taawon win | 47.7% | 46.7% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 50.3% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 29.2% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 54.2% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 33.6% | -6.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Hazem 32.5 / Al Taawon 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.